{"id":1348,"date":"2024-10-18T09:05:11","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T08:05:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.economistes-arabes.org\/fr\/?p=1348"},"modified":"2024-10-18T09:23:32","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T08:23:32","slug":"partial-contribution-to-wb-lebanon-systematic-country-diagnostic-august-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.economistes-arabes.org\/fr\/partial-contribution-to-wb-lebanon-systematic-country-diagnostic-august-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Partial contribution to WB Lebanon Systematic Country Diagnostic August 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial de-development<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u0627\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062d\u0631\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0626\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0639\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631<\/strong> <\/strong>\u0627\u062d\u062a\u064a\u0627\u062c\u0627\u064b \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0623\u0648\u0644\u0649 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0639\u0627\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0642\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Prior to the crisis, the Lebanese financial system was dominated by an oversized banking sector (66 banks), which accounted for 97 percent of financial system assets, amounting to 450 percent of GDP at end-2018. <\/strong>The large size of the banking sector was a red flag: for the banks to be shielded from shocks, vast resources would be needed to shore up capital. The banking sector was dominated by 10 banks that accounted for 90 percent of total system assets, with the five largest banks accounting for 60 percent of total assets in 2019\u20132020.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Rather than diversifying their holdings, bank portfolios gradually increased the sector\u2019s exposure to BdL and ultimately to the sovereign. <\/strong>As of June 2016, holdings of government debt securities accounted for about 28 percent of banks\u2019 assets, while deposits and excess reserves at BdL accounted for another 40 percent (Figure 17). Combined, these bank assets resulted in a total exposure to the sovereign of over six times the Tier 1 capital. Such exposure is highly risky when the debt-to-GDP ratio is at 140 percent of GDP, the highest of any emerging economy, and the medium-term current account and fiscal deficits are around 20 and 8\u20139 percent of GDP, respectively.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Today the banking sector is effectively insolvent, illiquid, and nonfunctional, with losses estimated at over US$70 billion. <\/strong>As of September 2023, 75 percent of banking assets were held at BdL in the form of deposits and an additional 3 percent in government securities (treasury bills and Eurobonds) and claims on the public sector (Table 3). Due to a lack of resources, neither BdL nor the government can honor these claims, rendering the banking sector insolvent. Other assets included credit to the private sector, with non-performing loans (NPLs) of around 70 percent as of December 2022. In lieu of formal capital controls, and since they were unable to honor depositors\u2019 withdrawal requests, banks have imposed ad hoc rules on withdrawals with no accountability or oversight. Bank resident deposits decreased from US$125 billion in 2019 (72 percent in foreign currencies) to US$73 billion in September 2023 (96 percent in FX) (Figure 18). The local currency has depreciated by 98 percent since 2019, and depositors can only access their full deposits at the official exchange rate at a massive discount (see Box 2). The burden of the ongoing and largely unregulated adjustment in the financial sector has been borne by smaller depositors (see Table 5), with 2.5 million accounts below US$200,000 estimated to have lost around US$15 billion between 2019 and 2021. At the same time, the number of active borrowers decreased from 1.2 million to 0.3 million, with large and small borrowers reimbursing their loans in LBP at a highly discounted value.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. The banking sector, traditionally at the center of financial intermediation in the country, is incapable of performing its lending and deposit-taking activities.<\/strong> With the limited role of capital markets in the financial landscape, Lebanon\u2019s large banking sector was the principal source of credit for the private and public sectors. Action on a comprehensive bank restructuring agenda, including resolution measures, has halted amid private actors\u2019 opposition to an equitable banking resolution under which losses are realized and distributed up front, in line with the hierarchy of creditors.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. With the banking system paralyzed, Lebanon has become a primarily dollarized cash-based
      economy with increasing use of cash and other alternatives to banks to conduct financial operations.<\/strong>
      Money transfer operators are now a primary method for sending and receiving remittances, local
      transfers including social cash transfers, and paying wages. As the economy divests from the banking
      sector, the World Bank estimates that the size of the cash economy has more than doubled between 2020 and 2022, and today accounts for close to 46 percent of GDP or US$9.86 billion.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      https:\/\/documents1.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/099092024170038879\/pdf\/BOSIB1db9263530b91b68b16e8047550793.pdf <\/a><\/p>\n\r\n\t\t

      <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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