{"id":1666,"date":"2026-10-28T15:42:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T14:42:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.economistes-arabes.org\/fr\/?p=1666"},"modified":"2026-10-28T15:42:20","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T14:42:20","slug":"transboundary-routes-in-the-mediterranean-and-the-gulf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.economistes-arabes.org\/fr\/transboundary-routes-in-the-mediterranean-and-the-gulf\/","title":{"rendered":"Transboundary Routes in the Mediterranean and the Gulf"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Energy Transitions, Climate, and the Political Economy of Migration and Development<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ziad Ayoub Arbache<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Project TRACHMED post-secondement report :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Home institution: Le Cercle des Economistes Arabes. Host institution: Arab Forum for Alternatives (AFA)\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Executive Summary<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Central thesis: In the Mediterranean basin and the Gulf, the climate crisis, energy transitions, migration, and economic security intersect within a single integrated system that links the fates of the Global North and the Global South and is in turn connected to the dynamics of the Arabian Gulf through energy, trade, and migration corridors. The paper argues that the future of the region depends on moving beyond the rentier model toward productive development based on regional integration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First\u2013 Energy transitions: A structural asymmetry prevails between the two shores of the Mediterranean: the North is moving toward carbon neutrality (42% of Europe’s electricity from renewables in 2025), while the South relies on fossil fuels at a rate exceeding 90% despite its enormous solar and wind potential. This gap opens the way for electricity interconnection projects (ELMED, MedRing) and green hydrogen corridors targeting Europe, with the aim of importing 10 million tons annually by 2030, though these require cumulative investments of a trillion dollars, while warning that such projects may reproduce exploitative patterns and justify authoritarianism under the banner of a \u00ab\u00a0shared green future.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second\u2013 Climate change: The Mediterranean is classified as a climate \u00ab\u00a0hotspot,\u00a0\u00bb warming 20% faster than the global average. Drought, desertification, and water scarcity (180 million people affected today, projected to reach 250 million by 2050) threaten food and agricultural security and constitute a major driver of displacement and migration, with internal displacement of 13 million people projected in the Middle East by 2050. By contrast, carbon pricing in the Arab region (around $2\/ton) is far lower than in Europe ($68), exposing its exports to the European CBAM mechanism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third\u2013 From rent to productivity: The rentier model in the region extends beyond oil and gas to tourism, the Suez Canal, and remittances, through the \u00ab\u00a0Dutch disease\u00a0\u00bb mechanism that weakens productivity and institutions. Technology and artificial intelligence are proposed as tools to \u00ab\u00a0buy time\u00a0\u00bb by improving energy efficiency, driving innovation, accelerating structural transformation, improving governance, and curbing corruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fourth\u2013 Comparative lessons: A comparison is drawn between four Mediterranean countries (Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt) and two Asian models (Vietnam, Indonesia), showing that economic growth alone (4\u20135%) did not translate into sufficient job opportunities due to the absence of genuine structural transformation; whereas Asia succeeded in building globally competitive industrial bases through active industrial policies and investment in education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fifth\u2013 Population and migration: Weak labor force participation and chronic unemployment (especially among youth) fuel irregular migration. The IOM report (2026) documents a tragic paradox: a decline in arrivals to Europe (46%) alongside a doubling of deaths (821 dead or missing on the central migration route). The Gulf represents a major parallel destination, with remittances exceeding $15 billion annually from more than 10 million workers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sixth\u2013 Toward a new development model: The paper proposes five pillars: a knowledge and innovation economy, equitable green development, effective regional integration, institutional reform and anti-corruption, and active labor market policies, while affirming the interconnectedness of the Mediterranean and Gulf through energy, migration, investment, and security corridors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What next? The paper calls for placing youth and migration at the heart of development policies as actors rather than burdens, and warns of a \u00ab\u00a0vicious circle\u00a0\u00bb in sending countries (brain drain \u2192 greater reliance on remittances \u2192 weakened investment incentives). It also notes that the recent war involving Iran (February 2026) exposed the fragility of Arab economies and presents two options: a reactive response that reproduces rentier dependence, or a transformative response that builds indigenous capacities. Only the latter is capable of turning challenges into opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Macro Context<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The Mediterranean basin constitutes an exceptional space in which transboundary challenges are embodied, as the climate crisis, energy transitions, migration, and economic security intertwine in a complex fabric that is reshaping notions of sovereignty and regional cooperation. The Mediterranean is not merely a geographical space separating its two shores; it is an integrated politico-economic system in which the fates of the countries of the North and the South are increasingly intertwined, and in which the dynamics of the Arabian Gulf connect to the transformations of the region through energy and trade corridors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Mediterranean basin is one of the regions of the world most exposed to the impacts of climate change, with temperatures rising 20% faster than the global average, making it a climate \u00ab\u00a0hotspot\u00a0\u00bb. The region faces interconnected challenges, including water stress, more than 180 million people live in countries suffering from water scarcity, and this figure is expected to rise to 250 million by 2050; food security, more than 50% of grain consumption in the countries of the southern Mediterranean depends on imports; and unemployment and social vulnerability, youth unemployment rates in some countries exceed 30%, fueling irregular migration and political tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The relationship between energy transitions and climate change in the Mediterranean goes beyond a narrow technical framework, linking directly to development models and demographic and social stakes. While the countries of the northern shore seek to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century and enjoy a renewable energy mix accounting for 42% of their electricity in 2025, the countries of the southern shore face the dilemma of development under a dependence exceeding 90% on fossil fuels, despite their enormous solar and wind potential. This asymmetry creates transboundary opportunities and challenges, from interconnection projects such as an integrated Mediterranean electricity grid to green hydrogen corridors through which Europe plans to import 10 million tons annually from its southern and eastern neighborhood by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The region has witnessed profound geopolitical transformations that have affected energy security and regional stability\u2014from the war in Ukraine (2022\u20132026), which restructured European gas corridors, to Israel’s war on Gaza (2023\u20132026), which threatened Eastern Mediterranean gas projects, to tensions with Iran (since February 2026) and the intermittent war on Lebanon, all of which have collectively redefined regional security equations. In this context, the Arabian Gulf stands out as a strategic partner for importing countries and goes beyond traditional energy corridors, covering more than 30% of Europe’s oil imports and 20% of its liquefied gas and its various derivatives. Its sovereign funds hold assets exceeding $3 trillion, increasingly invested in the Mediterranean, while more than 10 million workers from the countries of the southern Mediterranean live in the Gulf, remitting more than $15 billion annually to their countries of origin. This comes at a time when the European Union has restructured its institutions toward the southern neighborhood, having established in February 2025 the Directorate-General for the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf, to handle relations with the countries of the southern neighborhood (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia) and with all the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council as Engage Partners, a step reflecting a growing European awareness of the fundamental difference between the priorities of the southern and eastern neighborhoods and the importance of a tailor-made approach for each region (see annex).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the face of these intertwined challenges, artificial intelligence and technology emerge as decisive factors for buying time and reducing costs, and thus as a strategic alternative to the rentier model in its various forms (oil, gas, tourism, the Suez Canal, remittances). By improving energy and resource efficiency, driving innovation and the circular economy, accelerating structural transformation, and improving governance, technology can contribute to building a new development model based on knowledge, productivity, and sustainability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accordingly, this paper addresses the energy and climate axes, not only in the sense of geopolitics, but also within the economic space and the population question through the lens of regional convergence, highlighting transboundary pathways in the Mediterranean, the region’s relationship with the Arabian Gulf, and offering a comparative reading of the leading development experiences of selected countries. The future of the Mediterranean depends on the ability of its countries to transcend the narrow logic of national interests and move toward adopting a shared regional vision of integration and cooperation, one grounded in recognizing a common destiny in the face of environmental and economic challenges, investing in innovation and knowledge as a pillar of sustainable development, and turning transboundary challenges into opportunities for solidarity and shared progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n